AGP Executive Report

Food Safety Watch: Uganda’s everyday food handling is flagged as unsafe, from greasy stall cloths to risky market practices that normalise contamination. Consumer Health Alert: A US-linked Salmonella outbreak has been tied to moringa leaf powder supplements, with multiple products named and recalls expanding. Inflation & Household Pressure: Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.93% in May 2026 as food and other costs keep squeezing consumers, even as month-on-month inflation eased. Policy Pushback: An economic group rejects IMF advice to add fuel and telecom taxes, warning it will worsen cost-of-living strain. Trade & Enforcement: Nigeria Customs seized 3,310 jerry cans of smuggled vegetable oil, targeting illicit imports that undercut local producers. Digital Divide: A new analysis says Africa has under 1% of global AI compute capacity but pays up to 40% more for cloud services, risking exclusion from the AI economy. Tanzania Trade Readiness: TÜV Rheinland expands Tanzania’s PVoC coverage to include Greater China, aiming to speed conformity checks for imports. Energy Access: Oryx Energies Tanzania opens a new Wazo fuel station, citing improved investment conditions and plans to expand further.

IMF Watch: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva welcomed the US-Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, but warned energy and supply disruptions will take time to fade—keeping inflation risk on the table across import-dependent economies. Nigeria Inflation & Cost of Living: Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.93% in May (food inflation 16.96%), with month-on-month easing to 1.75%—still leaving households under pressure. Tax Backlash: Nigerians pushed back against IMF advice to raise VAT and add telecom excises, arguing it could worsen inflation and deepen hardship. CBN Financial Reform: The CBN launched the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR), a transaction-based benchmark meant to improve transparency and monetary policy transmission. Fuel Watch (Nigeria): With crude sliding after the US-Iran deal, analysts expect petrol could drop toward N1,000/litre as Dangote reviews ex-gantry pricing. Power Safety: NERC tightened Nigeria’s electricity safety rules, including minimum N15m death compensation for electrical accident fatalities. Agribusiness & Trade: China opened unified quarantine access for cashew exports from more African countries, potentially widening market reach. East Africa Devices Financing: Mogo says it has financed 500,000 smartphones across East Africa in 14 months, boosting access via fast approvals and retail partnerships. South Africa Business Mood: SACCI’s May business confidence index rose 7.2% y/y, though retail, building and mining still face constraints. Steel Imports (SA): South Africa’s Itac recommended safeguard duties on corrosion-resistant steel coil imports for three years to protect local industry. Menstrual Health (Namibia): Lil-Lets donated 6,000 sanitary pad packs to support menstrual health initiatives in Namibia.

US-Iran Peace Deal & Fuel Prices: The US and Iran have agreed to end their 107-day war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz toll-free, with a formal signing set for June 19—sending oil prices tumbling and raising hopes of cheaper fuel for Africa, including Kenya, where pump-price changes lag global benchmarks. Kenya Water & Energy Cost Relief: Tanzania’s PM ordered faster rollout of clean water projects and a national water grid, while Kenya’s editorial push urges faster solar farms, rooftop solar and battery storage to cut dependence on imported fuel. Nigeria Fintech & Banking Rules: MTN Group Fintech and Ant International plan a Nigeria “MoMo super app” rollout, while Nigeria’s CBN proposes ring-fencing for closely linked banks and fintechs—potentially forcing restructuring and fresh capital. South Africa Consumer Protection: Human Rights Watch renewed scrutiny of US-Africa health deals over data privacy and sovereignty, and South Africa’s Sassa funeral-policy scams highlight predatory deductions targeting vulnerable grant recipients. Sports & Retail Access: SABC and Vodacom struck a deal to stream World Cup 2026 coverage with discounted data, and DHL Stadium earned FIFA floodlight certification—boosting broadcast-ready venue standards. Counterfeit Crackdown: South Africa’s Mpumalanga raid seized over R2m in fake goods, including personal care and food products.

Fuel & cost-of-living pressure: Kenya’s EPRA cut diesel by just Sh10/litre, with motorists’ group MAK calling it too small and accusing “political” diesel relief; President Ruto says supply was protected amid Iran-linked oil volatility. Regional energy shock: Mozambique fishermen in Maputo’s Pescadores quarter are stranded as petrol and diesel costs jumped after May price hikes, with queues at stations and erratic supply hitting livelihoods. Tax debate with consumer impact: The IMF urges Nigeria to extend VAT to fuel and add telecom excise duties, warning reforms must be cushioned by cash transfers—while also flagging stablecoin use risks to naira sovereignty. Financial sector rules: Nigeria’s CBN proposes ring-fencing to separate banks from closely linked fintechs and restrict use of customer funds for subsidiaries. Retail & consumer safety: South Africa investigates a Qumbu pharmacy shooting that killed one and injured two customers. Food prices: Lagos traders blame insecurity, supply shortages and transport costs for soaring ginger prices. World Cup consumer marketing: Coca-Cola Tanzania launches a nationwide World Cup fan campaign across 15,000 outlets; Mixx rewards Tanzanians with cash prizes tied to everyday transactions. Health & services: Orbis Flying Eye Hospital returns to Peru for ophthalmic training; Kenya’s MKU is among only three medical schools fully meeting EAC standards. Security & governance: A Nigeria defence expert links grassroots governance gaps to insecurity, while the Nigerian Navy says it foiled renewed illegal refining in Rivers.

Fuel Shock on Coastal Livelihoods: In Mozambique, surging petrol and diesel prices linked to Middle East supply disruptions are leaving Maputo fishermen stranded at sea, with petrol up 12% to 83.6 meticais/litre and diesel up nearly 46% to record levels. Biodiversity Roadmap: African policymakers and scientists backed a continent-wide plan for sustainable forest and biodiversity management, stressing governance, research, and tech to protect forests, peatlands, mangroves and drylands. AfCFTA Tariff Moves in Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe says it is nearing the gazetting of its AfCFTA tariff offer, aiming to phase down tariffs on 97% of products over 5–10 years to unlock intra-Africa trade. Youth Jobs Pressure in South Africa: Youth Month data shows only about 3 in 10 South Africans aged 15–24 who want work have jobs, with youth unemployment at 45.8% (15–34). Consumer Safety Alert (Nigeria): NAFDAC warns of a US recall of ~90,000 bottles of children’s ibuprofen oral suspension due to foreign materials, and says it’s strengthening surveillance to stop entry. Stablecoin & Tax Debate (Nigeria): The IMF flags risks from US dollar stablecoins to Nigeria’s monetary sovereignty and urges possible VAT/fuel/telecom tax changes—sparking pushback on timing and impact. Labour & Immigration Crackdown (South Africa): South Africa launches workplace blitz inspections targeting undocumented hiring, UIF/compensation non-registration, wage violations and PPE gaps. Used Car Imports Surge (Nigeria): Despite import controls, used vehicle imports jumped 91.9% to N249.84bn in Q1 2026, led by the US. EV Retail Expansion (Ethiopia): JUNTU Technologies opens an Addis Ababa showroom and after-sales hub for Chery’s OMODA and JAECOO EVs as Ethiopia shifts away from gasoline/diesel passenger imports.

Consumer Credit Crackdown: A Kenyan court has slammed Mogo Auto Limited for “exorbitant” and “exploitative” interest on a Ksh400,000 loan, citing an effective 86.4% rate and applying the in duplum rule to cut the lender’s claim. Trade Finance Boost: The EBRD approved a $20m trade finance line for Bank of Africa-Benin to back imports/exports and help local firms access regional and international markets. Pharma Rules Under Fire: Morocco’s dietary supplement industry is pushing back against a proposed change to pharmaceutical law that would give pharmacies exclusive rights to sell certain therapeutic-effect supplements. Morocco Informality Diagnosis: Economists warn the informal sector won’t shrink just from growth; they point to a mismatch between the costs and benefits of formal status. Morocco-China Trade Talks: Rabat is weighing China’s free-trade offer, with impact assessments and safeguards for sensitive sectors. Digital Payments Race (Nigeria): Monnify says its payment gateway processed N25tn in 2025, intensifying competition over Nigeria’s payment “rails.” HIV Prevention Rollout (South Africa): SA committed R1.3bn to expand Lenacapavir twice-yearly HIV prevention injections via public clinics. Banking Fraud Pressure (South Africa): A Belgium court ruling could shift how banks handle fraud disputes, with implications for consumer protection. Infrastructure & Retail: Liquid expands Zimbabwe connectivity with 26,000km fibre and 261 LTE sites; Vertiv’s ThermoKey acquisition closes. Automotive Launch (Nigeria): Carloha Nigeria unveiled the Chery Tiggo 9 PHEV and signalled the arrival of the Chery Q brand.

SpaceX IPO Buzz: SpaceX’s Wall Street debut sent shares up about 19%, valuing the firm at roughly $2.1tn and making Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire—fuelled by demand for its Starlink connectivity and AI ambitions. Kenya Airways Funding: Kenya Airways is seeking about $1.5bn (Sh194bn) to expand its fleet and cargo and return to long-term profitability after a Sh17.2bn net loss in 2025. Retail Payments Shift: South Africa’s buy now, pay later (BNPL) is surging, with operators pushing for formal regulation as the central bank warns of over-indebtedness risks. Mobile Money & Fintech Push: MTN says it’s doubling down on connectivity and fintech, aiming to grow beyond 350m customers by 2030 and expand retail banking services in Nigeria. Women & Credit Gap (Kenya): Kenya’s credit data shows women-led SMEs get only about 27% of outstanding MSME credit value, largely due to collateral barriers. Spar Own-Brand Drive: Spar is leaning harder into private label to lift margins, targeting growth from ~22% of sales toward ~30%. Angola–Congo Comms Deal: Angola’s INACOM and Congo’s telecom regulator signed a memorandum to prevent cross-border signal interference as services expand. Ghana AfCFTA SME Support: Ghana screened 1,000+ SMEs to help them benefit from AfCFTA market opportunities. Nigeria Fertiliser Supply Stability: Nigeria’s early procurement of fertiliser raw materials reportedly saved about $44m and reduced disruption fears amid US–Iran shipping shocks. MultiChoice Restructuring: MultiChoice says it’s cut jobs via a voluntary severance programme as it restructures for growth and cost control.

SME Retail Reality Check (South Africa): Business Partners’ SME Confidence Index says small businesses got more relief from improved electricity supply than from Black Friday/festive trading, with 73.4% citing reduced load shedding benefits and seasonal demand proving uneven as costs and weak consumer spending bite. Fuel Supply Shift (South Africa): US refiners are ramping diesel and petrol shipments to Africa, with South Africa set to take 5m+ barrels of US diesel since the Iran war began—reshaping sourcing as Middle East and other routes tighten. EV Push (Tanzania): Tanzania’s budget tax exemptions for electric mobility products aim to cut upfront prices and speed adoption, alongside directives for public institutions to procure EVs. National Budget Focus (Tanzania): The 2026/27 plan targets 6.3% growth, job creation of 1.7m, and higher domestic revenue, with priority areas spanning energy, transport, research and digital transformation. Aviation Upgrades (Tanzania): Musoma and Shinyanga airports are nearing completion, with Musoma flights expected to resume in July 2026 after an eight-year pause. Consumer Tech/Payments (Nigeria): FCCPC action leaves 92m MTN subscribers still stranded without airtime credit services, while Airtel and Glo have restarted—sparking backlash over timelines and consumer impact. Big Consumer Investment (Egypt): Coca-Cola HBC plans $1.28bn investment in Egypt (2026-2030) to expand local PET bottle production and capacity. Retail/Healthcare Expansion (Angola): Cameron Health buys a new retail pharmacy site near Walmart in Angola, adding drive-through prescription pickup and room to scale outpatient services. Capital Markets (West Africa): BRVM’s CEO urges global investors to “come to Africa,” pitching the regional exchange as a fast-growth financing gateway for WAEMU economies. Food & Trade (SADC): SADC stakeholders discuss how China’s zero-tariff access for 53 African countries could boost exports, but warn standards and border barriers must be tackled. Business Growth (Nigeria): Dangote Refinery moves toward a public listing with a $1bn private share placement, aimed at expansion and future growth.

Pharma Partnerships: ADCAN Pharma and Menarini formalised a UAE deal to locally manufacture and batch-release selected Menarini products, aiming to cut supply risks and speed patient access. Industrial Financing: Kenya plans a new supply-chain lending approach that prioritises manufacturers with confirmed orders, backed by a Samurai Loan to fund expansion in autos and parts. Health Demand Resilience: In Kenya, condom sales stayed strong in 2025 despite US donor cuts, with Trust condoms up to 27.3m units and PS Kenya revenue supported by programme income. Business Sentiment: South Africa’s SACCI Business Confidence Index inched up from April to May, helped by vehicle sales and exports, but still held back by tourism weakness and inflation worries. Mining Data Shift: Nigeria’s Solid Minerals Development Fund says “data is the new oil,” pushing exploration and mineral evaluation under the EMERGE initiative. Digital Connectivity: Namibia used ANGOTIC 2026 to deepen digital ties with Angola, including plans to leverage shared undersea cable routes for redundancy. Employer Compliance: South Africa’s proposed Employment Services Amendment Bill would require stricter document checks for foreign workers, with fines up to R100,000. Tanzania Budget Push: Tanzania unveiled 2026/27 incentives—tax holidays, VAT exemptions and fuel support—as grants fall 39.1%, targeting lower costs and more domestic revenue.

Fuel & Energy: Nigerian filling stations cut premium petrol (PMS) to about ₦1,330–₦1,350 per litre in Abuja and environs, following Dangote Refinery’s ex-depot price slash; prices are expected to keep moving with crude volatility and Middle East tensions. Digital Payments & Regulation: Ghana’s central bank granted enza a PSP Enhanced licence, boosting regulated digital payments capacity in a market already pushing fast fintech growth. Consumer Finance Promotions: CRDB Bank in Tanzania rewarded TemboCard Visa users with World Cup travel and TV prizes for live match viewing in Canada and the US. Public Sector Costs: Tanzania directed public institutions to prioritise electric and gas vehicles to cut operating costs and reduce reliance on imported fuel. Tax & Consumer Goods: Tanzania proposed a 5% excise duty on betting stakes and raised excise on imported beauty products to 15%, aiming to curb social harms and broaden revenue. Manufacturing Pressure: South Africa’s manufacturing output fell 2.9% year-on-year in April, with sharp drops in automotive and metals. Built Environment Safety: South Africa trained 248 new building inspectors to strengthen compliance amid recent deadly building collapses. Trade & Exports: China’s zero-tariff access for 53 African countries is expected to open export and investment opportunities, especially for agricultural products, but exporters still face standards and logistics hurdles. World Cup Consumer Moments: Chipotle’s World Cup promo offers a free entrée for jersey-wearing fans after 3pm, while local watch parties across communities are turning football into retail and hospitality demand.

Premium Food Retail: Americana Restaurants and carpo opened the first carpo store in Qatar, pushing the premium nuts, coffee and chocolates brand into the luxury food segment across MENA. Education & Skills: AU Education Commissioner Prof Gaspard Banyankimbona is in Zimbabwe to assess and scale the Heritage-Based Education 5.0 model. Logistics Tech: Bidvest Mobility, Zebra Technologies and FarEye showcased digital, AI-enabled logistics tools at Transport Evolution Africa, targeting faster last-mile delivery. World Cup Consumer Culture: Mexico vs South Africa kicks off June 11 (2pm local Mexico City; Fox/streaming in the US), as the tournament begins without Nigeria’s Super Eagles. Packaging & Sustainability: Polyoak launched South Africa’s first Eco-Flat Wine Bottle using recycled PET to cut weight, transport costs and emissions. Circular Economy Jobs: A glass recycling push highlights that South Africa’s glass recycling value chain supports about 50,000 livelihoods. Macro & Cost Pressure: Kenya’s central bank cut 2026 growth to 4.9% due to higher global fuel prices, while South Africa’s SARB warned the financial system is more vulnerable amid the Middle East shock. Retail Competition: Spar is rebooting its Spar 2U delivery app to differentiate via “My Spar” and local store-community links. Energy Security: South Africa plans to raise strategic petroleum reserves to 60 days of net imports to reduce supply disruption risk. Consumer Health & Safety: Nigeria’s FCCPC shut CASCO Electronics over consumer complaints, as unsafe food remains a major public health concern.

Textile Circularity in Morocco: IFC says recycling textile offcuts is commercially viable, with trials turning 427 tons into new materials and targeting $1.9bn private investment plus 30,000+ jobs, while cutting carbon ~18% and water use 60%+. Consumer Protection in South Africa: The ARB ruled Jetour’s “from R4,999 per month” TV advert misleading for omitting key financing terms like deposits, residual values and repayment periods. Telecom Transparency in Nigeria: Airtel Nigeria launched a Web Data Calculator to help users estimate data use by activity, following subscriber complaints and MTN’s “Data on Trial” push. Logistics Expansion in Kenya: Uber applied for a Kenya courier licence to move into parcel delivery, riding growth in e-commerce logistics. World Cup Consumer Buzz: FIFA 2026 is driving promotions and deals, from food-and-drink offers to interactive fan tools like Tribuna.com’s Arabic bracket challenge. Energy Costs in Kenya: The energy ministry ordered a Ksh 0.02685/kWh electricity bill reduction and suspended a Kenya Power tariff review. South Africa Food & Trade: AgriSA reports a record R25.5bn agricultural trade surplus in Q1 2026, mainly from lower import costs. Nigeria Tax Modernisation: FG launched Rev360, a digital platform to improve tax compliance and revenue collection. Ethiopia Budget Signal: Ethiopia approved a draft federal budget of about $14.51bn, projecting strong growth momentum. South Africa Property Pressure: Investment in new homes fell 7.2% amid weaker housing delivery and household strain.

SME Finance (Kenya): Credit Bank set aside Sh1bn for 2026 to back SME growth, pairing lending with trade finance, insurance and transactional banking to help firms expand and create jobs. Conflict Minerals (DRC/Rwanda): A Global Witness investigation says smuggled conflict coltan from DRC-linked M23 violence is likely entering global electronics supply chains, with major brands “likely” implicated through weak due diligence. Retail & Property (South Africa): Gauteng malls and big shopping centres led Q1 2026 performance, with superregional centres showing stronger trading-density growth as health and beauty retailers outperformed. Circular Economy (South Africa): The SA Plastics Pact launched its 2030 targets, bringing brands and recyclers together to push packaging circularity and recycling outcomes. Clean Cooking Pressure (Nigeria): LPG prices jumped sharply, driving households back to charcoal as the clean-cooking push faces supply and affordability strain. EV Adoption (South Africa): EV sales are gaining momentum, but policy gaps on duties and charging infrastructure still threaten faster uptake. Food & Health Trade (Ghana): The West Africa Pharma & Healthcare Expo opened in Accra, urging investment and local manufacturing, including plans for a locally made vaccine next year. World Cup Commerce (MENA/Global): beIN Sports will carry all World Cup matches across MENA via TV and streaming, with country-specific access routes. Debt Collection Tech (South Africa): 1Stream says AI voice agents are helping some consumers engage on overdue accounts more comfortably than human collectors. Data Security (MEA): Spire Solutions partnered with Seclore to strengthen data governance and compliance readiness as AI adoption accelerates.

Consumer Redress & Telecom Quality: Nigeria’s NCC says telcos have compensated 75m+ subscribers with airtime credits over poor network quality, with independent checks still under way. Regulation & Consumer Protection: Nigeria’s Senate advances a bill to regulate virtual asset service providers, aiming to curb fraud and protect investors as crypto adoption grows. Tax Pressure on Households: Nigeria’s Tax Ombud pushes to end multiple taxation by harmonising tax administration across federal, state and local levels, while lawmakers also debate VAT remittance gaps and sugar-sweetened beverage tax impacts. South Africa Consumer Reality Check: Stats SA reports 0.5% Q1 GDP growth, but analysts warn jobs and household strain remain the real test as fuel and confidence pressures build. Energy for Daily Life: Niger inaugurates a Niger–Algeria solidarity power plant to ease electricity cuts, while Eskom launches a renewable unit to accelerate clean capacity. Food & Farming Costs: Cocoa prices slip on forecasts for drier West Africa weather; Ghana pilots germination index insurance to protect smallholders from erratic rainfall. Standards & Product Trust: Nigeria’s SON issues MANCAP certificates for 23 products across nine companies, reinforcing mandatory quality checks before sale or export. Health & Outbreaks: Congo’s Ebola toll rises past 100 deaths as conflict slows response, highlighting fragile healthcare access. Sports Consumer Culture: Adidas launches Messi’s World Cup collection, and World Cup-themed food and drink promotions are rolling out for fans.

Logistics & Health Supply: Kenya’s KEMSA will close its Nairobi and regional distribution centres for five days (July 6–10) for annual stock-take, with only emergency medical requests handled. Satellite Internet Race: Amazon has applied for a Kenya licence to build its first African satellite ground station, aiming to bring Amazon Leo (Kuiper) closer to Starlink-style low latency. Food Security & Climate Risk: A likely El Niño event plus rising temperatures could intensify droughts, floods and heat stress, raising the odds of tougher conditions for agriculture and food prices. Consumer Credit Watch: South Africa’s TransUnion warns that making buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) visible in formal credit reporting could shift scores for 15%–25% of credit-active consumers. Manufacturing Pressure: Nigeria’s LCCI cautions that the passed Sugar-Sweetened Beverage tax could raise costs and squeeze an already strained manufacturing sector. Energy & Affordability: South Africa’s Nersa is considering caps on gas price hikes to protect industrial users as the market faces a future supply squeeze. Trade Signals: Nigeria’s Q1 trade surplus jumped 341% to N7.55tn, driven by lower petroleum product imports and higher crude exports.

Capital Markets: Nigeria’s NGX selloff and lower volumes are being linked to the new T+1 settlement cycle, with foreign investors said to be watching how the faster cash-and-securities timing affects liquidity. Food Safety: Ethiopia’s EFDA is pushing stronger collaboration to curb unsafe food, while Nigeria reports nearly 50m foodborne illnesses yearly and warns children under five carry most of the burden. Malaria Control: Nigeria is rolling out next-generation dual-active ingredient ITNs plus larval source management and malaria vaccine tools under its malaria elimination push. Consumer & Retail: L’Oréal names Azziad Nasenya as the first Kenyan face of Garnier, and South Africa’s TFG plans to take over the former Topshop space at Eastgate Shopping Centre with a multi-brand store. Telecom & Payments: MTN Nigeria says “unlimited data” isn’t financially sustainable and points to user/device behaviour in rapid depletion cases; Nigeria’s CBN also plans AI to fight fraud in digital payments. Agriculture & Livelihoods: Tanzania’s native-bee beekeeping model is helping communities earn income without harming ecosystems, and Ethiopia launches the “Etittuu” probiotic starter culture to boost milk fermentation. Energy & Regulation: Benue signs an electricity bill into law to improve access and consumer protection, while South Africa’s electricity system is described as stable but structurally strained.