Escalating US-Israel War with Iran Poses Long-Term Global Risks—Expert
Ali Vaez, Iran project director and senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, cautioned that relying on military pressure is unlikely to yield a lasting resolution. He argued that repeated diplomatic breakdowns and deepening mistrust have steered Washington toward a confrontation without a clear path to de-escalation.
Speaking on the sidelines of the STRATCOM Summit 2026 in Istanbul, Vaez pointed to shortcomings in negotiation strategies that contributed to the collapse of dialogue efforts.
He said, “President Trump always surrounded himself by people who were in charge of the negotiations, who did not share his interest in any kind of serious agreement..."
Vaez continued, “(They) conveyed to him this view that Iran would be able to capitulate to him under pressure so he doesn't need to engage in any kind of give and take,” highlighting what he described as a flawed assumption behind the U.S. approach.
He further noted that expecting Iran to accept a one-sided agreement was unrealistic, arguing that such a strategy ultimately undermined the chances of successful negotiations during both of Trump’s terms in office.
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